Tourism Research Australia’s latest Tourism Forecasts for Australia 2025-2030 report paints a picture of continued growth for the visitor economy, alongside clear shifts in how, why and where people travel. While total visitor spend is expected to rise steadily over the next five years, the report highlights a more value-conscious traveller, strong demand for day trips and short breaks, and ongoing pressure from outbound travel by Australians. For tourism, hospitality and experience-based businesses, the message is clear: growth opportunities remain, but success will rely on adapting to changing travel patterns rather than relying on pre-pandemic norms.
Total visitor spend in Australia reached a record $180.6 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to $191.6 billion in 2025, an increase of 6 per cent in just one year. By 2030, total visitor spend is projected to reach around $233 billion, growing at an average annual rate of 4 per cent over the forecast period. Domestic tourism continues to account for the largest share of this spend. However, the strongest growth in 2025 is expected to come from domestic day trips and international visitor spend, rather than overnight stays.
International visitor arrivals are forecast to increase from 8.3 million in 2024 to 8.8 million in 2025, before rising to 10.9 million by 2030. Growth is being driven by increased aviation capacity, major international events, and the ongoing recovery of key markets such as China and Southeast Asia. International visitor spend is forecast to jump 15 per cent in 2025, from $32.9 billion to $37.7 billion, before reaching $46 billion by 2030. However, TRA notes that while visitor numbers will continue to rise, average spend per trip is expected to moderate, as travellers increasingly seek value for money and businesses face pressure to contain travel costs.
Domestic travel remains resilient, but the way Australians travel has changed. In 2025:
By 2030, domestic visitor spend is projected to reach $187.4 billion, growing faster than inflation over the period. TRA attributes these trends to ongoing cost-of-living pressures, with households opting for shorter stays, closer-to-home travel and more frequent day trips. Holiday travel remains the largest driver of domestic trips, while business travel continues to grow at a slower pace as organisations reassess the need for face-to-face meetings.
Australians’ enthusiasm for overseas travel remains a key factor shaping the tourism landscape. Outbound trips are forecast to increase to 12.6 million in 2025, rising to 14.9 million by 2030. The gap between outbound travel and inbound arrivals – known as net outbound travel – is expected to remain large through to the end of the decade. TRA notes this has implications for both international and domestic tourism, particularly as Australians compete for aviation capacity and discretionary travel spend.
Victoria is forecast to record modest growth in domestic overnight trips in 2025 (up 0.4 per cent), with stronger gains expected from 2026 onwards. By 2030, domestic overnight trips in Victoria are projected to reach 34.1 million, supported by population growth and a strong intrastate travel market.
While the report does not provide regional forecasts, several trends are particularly relevant for destinations like the Mornington Peninsula:
For Peninsula businesses, these trends highlight the importance of experiences that cater to shorter stays, repeat visitation and spontaneous travel, alongside continued focus on quality, sustainability and value.
TRA’s forecasts suggest Australia’s visitor economy is entering a period of sustainable, moderate growth, rather than rapid rebound. For businesses, the opportunity lies in understanding how travel behaviour is evolving – and responding with products, pricing and experiences that reflect today’s traveller.
The full Tourism Forecasts for Australia 2025–2030 report is available on the Tourism Research Australia website.
